World economic trends, Thai economy, and investment conditions in 2018

     It cannot be denied that last year (2017) was a good year for investing. Especially risky assets like stocks. That makes investors, both small and large, receive positive returns. Or even gold itself, which usually runs against stocks. But it benefited from the weakening of the US dollar. Resulting in gold rising.

      Therefore, this is a year-end question for the investor community:!!! What will the operating results or global economic trends be like in 2018? Which direction should investment go? Let's take a look at the economic trend analysis to see what direction it will go.

      Many economists consider that The world economy will continue to recover, with the IMF estimating that this year (2018) the world economy will expand by 3.7% from the original forecast of 3.6%, mainly from many countries that grew better than expected in 2017, which reflects The continuous recovery of the world economy as a whole Especially in emerging market countries and developing countries. It is expected to grow at an average of 4.9% in 2018 from 4.6% last year.

Let's start back to the main countries. like the United States The matter of inflation is likely to reach 2% as expected, but we still need to keep an eye on the various policies that Trump will use to run the country. Especially the tax reduction measure to support the investment environment, which should see results within 2018.

     On the European side, economic index numbers tend to be stronger. But the country's internal problems are still a drag on the overall expansion of the region. such as the issue of Catalonia that has an impact on the growth of Spain, as well as Brexit, which still needs to be watched, the effects of which are likely to become clearer than last year.

     Japan's economy expanded gradually. As a result of Mr. Abe winning the election as expected in October, it supports political stability and continuity in implementing economic policies.

     China, Asia's big brother country Even though the economy is slowing down But it is considered within the framework set by the Chinese authorities at 6 - 7%, focusing mainly on growth from within. But we still need to keep an eye on private sector debt, which is still at a high level. This is the main issue of the latest economic development fan issue announced by President Xi Jinping in October.

     Finally, let's come back to Thailand. The Thai economy in 2018 tends to expand continuously from last year, with the main support from government investment. Product exports grew more than expected. and is continuously expanding And it is expected that the value of exports for the whole year will grow up to 7%, which is the best in 6 years. In addition, the tourism sector still has a good trend.

As for investment next year, it will not be much different from this year. Liquidity will remain high as core countries such as Europe and Japan continue to implement monetary easing measures to support economic growth and have a positive impact on listed companies and in many European countries such as France and Germany this year. There are signs that the risks will subside next year. But uncertainty still exists. Recently, the German side has not yet agreed on the formation of a coalition government. Including elections in Italy within May next year. Also, issues on the Korean Peninsula This is a political problem both within and between countries. Often affects investor confidence and the investment environment.

  Cr:kasikornasset